Republicans are likely to win Alaska’s House

Key Races to Watch

Alaska’s 1st (Ketchikan) - Leans C

Incumbent: Dan Ortiz (I-C)

Challenger: Jeremy Bynum (R)

Challenger: Shevaun Meggitt (I)

Alaska’s 12th (Abbott Loop) - Leans C

Incumbent: Calvin Schrage (I-C)

Challenger: Jay McDonald (R)

Alaska’s 13th (Campbell) - Leans D

Incumbent: Andy Josephson (D-C)

Challenger: Kathy Henslee (R)

Challenger: Timothy Huit (I)

In this outlook, Republicans win 21 House seats excluding Louise Stutes (R: AK-32) and the Coalition keeps 17 seats. Louise Stutes and all independents are currently caucused with the Coalition.

Alaska’s 21st (South Muldoon) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Donna Mears (D)

Challenger: Forrest Wolfe (R)

Challenger: Patrick Sharrock (I)

Alaska’s 22nd (North Muldoon) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Ted Eischeid (D)

Challenger: Lisa Simpson (R)

Challenger: Stanley Wright (R)

Alaska’s 35th (West Fairbanks) - Leans C

Incumbent Party Nominee: Ashley Carrick (D)

Challenger: Kevin McKinley (R)

Challenger: Tim Parker (I)

GOP Gets a Chance in Alaska

Environment

POINT ONE

Alaska is facing a reckoning with the future of its industries in conjunction with the environment. At this moment, Alaska relies on fishing and oil, which are industries that hurt the environment, along with tourism, which relies on a stable environment. Given the economic struggles many Alaskans face due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a shift towards expanded fishing and infrastructure improvements to boost the economy. Those arguments favor the Republicans and 2022 could be the year where Republicans finally seize on the Coalition’s chamber (Republicans attempted but failed to flip the Alaska House in 2020).

Budget

POINT TWO

The government’s financials have been a sticking point in much of the Alaskan policy debate for several years. Unlike many other states, Alaska has a program that routinely pays its citizens an annual check of a several thousand dollars which is based on the same principles as Andrew Yang’s freedom dividend proposal. This program, proposed by Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) has caused issues in how Alaska allocates its funding. Members of the Coalition are attempting to use this issue to portray the Alaska Republicans as incompetent and fiscally irresponsible. For now, though, Alaska’s paycheck program has remained popular with a majority of the population.

What is Alaska’s Coalition?

Alaska’s House of Representatives is currently led by a coalition government. The coalition is made up of Democrats, Independents, and one Republican. Currently, there are 21 Coalition members in the 40-seat chamber. The initial purpose of the Coalition was to be an alternative to Alaska’s Republican Party in the wake of Alaska’s budget crisis. In our outlook, races where independents are favored to win are colored yellow. The Republican who caucused with the coalition is Louise Stutes (R: AK-32) who also serves as the Speaker of the Alaska House.