Democrats are likely to hold Connecticut’s Senate

Key Races to Watch

Connecticut’s 17th (Ansonia) - Leans D

Incumbent: Jorge Cabrera (D)

Challenger: Kathy Hoyt (R)

Connecticut’s 19th (Norwich) - Leans R

Incumbent: Catherine Osten (D)

Challenger: Pietro Camardella (R)

In this outlook, the Democrats revert back to its pre-2020 numbers with a hold on 22 Senate members while the Republicans win in 14 districts.

Connecticut’s 20th (New London) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Jerry Labriola (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Martha Marx (D)

Connecticut’s 26th (Westport) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Ceci Maher (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Antonietta Boucher (R)

Connecticut’s 33rd (Colchester) - Leans D

Incumbent: Norm Needlamn (D)

Challenger: Brandon Goff (R)

Economics Dominates the Debate

Cost of Living

POINT ONE

Connecticut’s economy does not have many industries as many of its residents are suburban families with workers who commute to New York. As a result, Connecticut must get the bulk of its funding and budget from taxes and fees. Connecticut has one of the highest tax rates in the nation which has always been a sore point for Connecticut voters. In 2022, the stubbornly high taxes along with the national effects of inflation has made the cost of living the most important issue in the state. Republicans are looking to use this issue to match its performance in New Jersey last year and in Connecticut during the 2018 midterm elections.

Businesses

POINT TWO

Given that there are not many dominant industries in Connecticut, many town centers are supported by small businesses. Voters believe that, at this moment, starting a small business in Connecticut is prohibitive due to the state’s high tax rates. Connecticut businesses are looking for tax credits and incentives for research and development programs. Both ideas fit under the country club Republican party which is why Democrats are having to defend this Biden +20 state. Governor Ned Lamont (D) has pledged to minimal tax increases during his term, but small businesses want Lamont and the Connecticut legislature to lower taxes, not maintain the status quo.