Republicans are likely to maintain Michigan’s House

Key Races to Watch

In this outlook, Republicans are elected in 60 House seats while the Democrats are represented in 50 seats. The map on the left shows a detailed look at Grand Rapids (top left), Kalamazoo (bottom left), Lansing (middle), Flint (top right), and Detroit (bottom right).

Michigan’s 48th (Hamburg and Genoa) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Jennifer Conlin (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Jason Woolford (R)

Michigan’s 54th (Orion) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Shadia Martini (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Donni Steele (R)

Michigan’s 76th (SW Lansing) - Leans R

Incumbent: Angela Witwer (D)

Challenger: Jeremy Whittum (R)

Michigan’s 83rd (Wyoming) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Lisa DeKryger (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: John Fitzgerald (D)

Michigan’s 84th (Walker) - Leans D

Incumbent: Carol Glanville (D)

Challenger: Mike Milanowski (R)

Michigan’s 109th (Marquette) - Leans D

Incumbent: Gregory Markkanen (R)

Challenger: Casey VerBerkmoes (D)

Michigan’s 22nd (Plymouth) - Leans D

Incumbent: Matt Koleszar (D)

Challenger: Cathryn Neracher (R)

Michigan’s 28th (Brownstown) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Jamie Thompson (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Rob Kull (D)

Michigan’s 31st (Van Buren) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Dale Biniecki (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Reggie Miller (D)

Michigan’s 38th (Lakeshore) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Kevin Whiteford (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Joey Andrews (D)

Michigan’s 44th (Battle Creek) - Leans D

Incumbent: Jim Haadsma (D)

Challenger: Dave Morgan (R)

Democrats Attempt to Strike

Blue Collar Uncertainty

POINT TWO

The media stories about blue collar workers becoming more conservative are not new. Since Donald Trump shocked parts of the nation in 2016 over the flipping of the three core Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Democrats have acknowledged that they focused less on the preservation of union workers and more on general welfare programs. In 2022, many blue collar workers continue to suffer as steel mills close and certain factories shut down. That said, Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) secured many lucrative investments from automakers like GM in their mission to build electric vehicles. These deals have led Bloomberg to rate Michigan home to the best economy in the nation. Though blue collars are turning red, 2022 could be an exception for the state of Michigan which is why the Republicans are encountering risk in the state legislature.

Suburban Revolt

POINT ONE

Michigan is unique in the Rust Belt in that, while there are many manufacturing-centric communities, there are also a collection of growing suburban areas. These suburban towns include Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Lansing. There is no singular industry that heavily dominates in any of Michigan’s suburbs. Consequently, Michigan isn’t experiencing the same economic stagnation or decline that places like Pennsylvania or Maine witness. These places offer an opportunity for the Democrats because the suburbs are generally shifting towards the left in the past decade. In a state like Michigan, suburban voters could hold the key to the Democrats’s best chance to flip chambers.