Republicans are somewhat likely to keep Michigan’s Senate

Key Races to Watch

In this outlook, Republicans win in 20 Senate districts while the Democrats flip two seats to get 18 districts.

Michigan’s 9th (Rochester Hills) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Padma Kuppa (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Michael Webber (R)

Michigan’s 11th (Clinton) - Leans D

Incumbent: Michael MacDonald (R)

Challenger: Veronica Klinefelt (D)

Michigan’s 35th (Saginaw) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Annette Glenn (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Kristen Rivet (D)

Democrats Attempt to Strike

Suburban Revolt

POINT ONE

Michigan is unique in the Rust Belt in that, while there are many manufacturing-centric communities, there are also a collection of growing suburban areas. These suburban towns include Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Lansing. There is no singular industry that heavily dominates in any of Michigan’s suburbs. Consequently, Michigan isn’t experiencing the same economic stagnation or decline that places like Pennsylvania or Maine witness. These places offer an opportunity for the Democrats because the suburbs are generally shifting towards the left in the past decade. In a state like Michigan, suburban voters could hold the key to the Democrats’s best chance to flip chambers.

Blue Collar Uncertainty

POINT TWO

The media stories about blue collar workers becoming more conservative are not new. Since Donald Trump shocked parts of the nation in 2016 over the flipping of the three core Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Democrats have acknowledged that they focused less on the preservation of union workers and more on general welfare programs. In 2022, many blue collar workers continue to suffer as steel mills close and certain factories shut down. That said, Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) secured many lucrative investments from automakers like GM in their mission to build electric vehicles. These deals have led Bloomberg to rate Michigan home to the best economy in the nation. Though blue collars are turning red, 2022 could be an exception for the state of Michigan which is why the Republicans are encountering risk in the state legislature.