Republicans are somewhat likely to gain Minnesota’s House
Key Races to Watch
In this outlook, Republicans win 73 House seats while the amount of Democratic-Farmer-Labor members reduces to 61.
Minnesota’s 3B (Hermantown) - Leans D
Incumbent: Mary Murphy (D)
Challenger: Natalie Zeleznikar (R)
Minnesota’s 7B (Virginia) - Leans R
Incumbent: Dave Lislegard (D)
Challenger: Matt Norri (R)
Minnesota’s 14B (Saint Cloud) - Leans R
Incumbent: Dan Wolgamott (D)
Challenger: Aaron Henning (R)
Minnesota’s 33B (Stillwater) - Leans D
Incumbent Party Nominee: Mark Bishofsky (R)
Challenger Party Nominee: Josiah Hill (D)
Minnesota’s 35A (W Coon Rapids) - Leans R
Incumbent Party Nominee: John Heinrich (R)
Incumbent Party Nominee: Zack Stephenson (D)
Minnesota’s 35B (E Coon Rapids) - Leans R
Incumbent Party Nominee: Jerry Newton (D)
Challenger Party Nominee: Polly Matteson (R)
Minnesota’s 47B (SE Woodbury) - Leans D
Incumbent Party Nominee: Ethan Cha (D)
Challenger Party Nominee: Kelly Fenton (R)
Minnesota’s 55A (Savage) - Leans R
Incumbent: Jessica Hanson (D)
Challenger: Gabriela Koretch (R)
Minnesota’s 58A (Northfield) - Leans R
Incumbent Party Nominee: Kristi Pursell (D)
Challenger Party Nominee: Gary Bruggenthies (R)
Minnesota Is Trending Red
Exurban Communities
POINT ONE
Minnesota, until Donald Trump, had an unusual pattern of rural communities voting for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party. As other rural and exurban counties shifted right nationwide since the mid 80s, Minnesota held on to the DFL. In the Iron Belt region (northeast Minnesota), the emphasis on union rights kept many Minnesotans with the Democratic party. As the economy of Minneapolis started growing at a disproportionate pace, many rural Minnesotans felt as if the Democrats began to ignore them. Similar to other Rust Belt states, Donald Trump’s populist message flipped many voters from blue to red in 2016. Trump’s effects may not be over in Minnesota, though. The rural Minnesota community voted heavily blue to the point where there are white uneducated Democratic voters that the Republicans can target.
Redistricting
POINT TWO
The 2021 redistricting cycle did not have much impact on the partisanship of Minnesota because that job was relegated to the state courts. The courts decided to minimize changes to the amount of Democratic and Republican-favored seats, but it shuffled many incumbents into unfavorable districts. As a result, there are dozens of Representatives who decided to retire in this election. In a red wave year, competitive races where there is no incumbent Representative will certainly favor the Republicans. Consequently, we can expect Minnesota to have one of the most consequential state legislature races this year. The number of competitive seats puts Democrats in a vulnerable position, especially outside of the Twin Cities region.
Why Is It Called the Minnesota DFL Party?
The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party was not originally the same party. In the early 1900s, there was a party called the Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota. The organization was a left-wing party of the Progressive Era that campaigned for union rights during the tumultuous period. The party would become one of the most successful third-party campaigns in American history. Farmers and unionists in Minnesota advocated for protection and social security benefits. As the purpose gained traction among Minnesotans, party leaders filed candidates races down the statewide ballot. Though the Farmer-Labor Party did not spread from Minnesota, supporters were able to elect two governors and four lieutenant governors. In 1944, the Democrats managed to work out a deal that involved absorbing the Farmer-Labor Party into the Minnesota Democrats’ agenda. Since the 40s until recently, Democrats had strong showings in Minnesota because of its focus on union rights. There are still remnants of the Farmer-Labor’s influence in today’s Minnesota, especially in the Iron Range region of Northeaste Minnesota.