The GOP is very likely to win more Governorships

The Prediction

In this outlook, the Republicans win 28 Governorships by flipping Nevada and Wisconsin while the Democrats maintain 20 positions and flip 2 (Maryland and Massachusetts).

Changes Between 2018 and 2022

Maryland flips from R to D

Massachusetts flips from R to D

Nevada flips from D to R

Wisconsin flips from D to R

Key Races to Watch

Arizona - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Kari Lake (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Katie Hobbs (D)

Kansas - Leans D

Incumbent: Laura Kelly (D)

Challenger: Derek Schmidt (R)

Nevada - Leans R

Incumbent: Steve Sisolak (D)

Challenger: Joe Lombardo (R)

Wisconsin - Tilts R

Incumbent: Tony Evers (D)

Challenger: Tim Michels (R)

Why the GOP still holds the state:

Shifting Candidates

POINT TWO

Republicans are lucky to have supposedly hardline candidates move towards the center. In Arizona and Wisconsin, many pundits thought that the Republicans’s respective candidates, Kari Lake and Tim Michels, would doom their chances by moving far to the right in the primaries. That said, their shift in focus from issues like the 2020 election and abortion to economics and crime have caused voters to reconsider them.

Another factor in these races is the national environment. At this moment, Republicans have the momentum to pound the Democrats on rising inflation until the midterms. As a result, good candidates may not always matter in key races. There are some cases where that statement is not true, like Michigan, but state races are not national races. These gubernatorial elections include more regional issues, such as tourism in Nevada. Consequently, Republicans are able to lead in many races because of their attention towards local issues that benefit their narrative.

Urban Problems

POINT ONE

The level of crime, particularly in urban cores of the United States, has been rising in the past several years. The number of individuals who are homeless amid high renting rates has also increased. No city suits these trends better than perhaps New York City. Although the day-to-day experiences of the city are generally safe, the attention put to rising crime has exacerbated calls for order.

These repudiations of crime and homelessness have been called out by Republican candidates nationwide, especially within the past several weeks. The GOP views this issue as a motivating factor among many moderate suburban commuters who are concerned for their safety. New York, Oregon, and Nevada residents have shifted towards the Republicans on this issue. Furthermore, core Democratic voters may feel antipathy towards giving their party another term in office. As a result, this issue is causing moderates to move to the Republicans and Democrats to stay away from the election in spite of social issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.