Republicans are likely to win the US House

The Prediction

Image of our forecast of the US House, made two weeks before our final November 7th prediction.

Republicans win 230 seats under the September outlook while the Democrats keep 205 seats.

Changes Between 2020 and 2022

AZ-02 + AZ-06 flip R

CA-21 flips D

FL-02 FL-07 + FL-13 flip R

GA-06 flips R

IL-13 flips D

IA-03 flips R

MI-03 flips D + MI-10 flips R

NV-01 + NV-03 flip R

NJ-07 flips R

NY-03 + NY-04 + NY-19 flips R

OH-13 flips R

OR-05 flips R

RI-02 flips R

TN-01 flips R

TX-15 + TX-34 flip R

VA-02 flips R

WI-03 flips R

Key Races to Watch

New York’s 3rd (N Nassau) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Robert Zimmerman (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: George Santos (R)

New York’s 4th (S Nassau) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Laura Gillen (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Anthony D’Esposito (R)

New York’s 17th (Westchester) - Leans D

Incumbent: Sean Patrick Maloney (D)

Challenger: Michael Lawler (R)

New York’s 19th (Catskills) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Josh Riley (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Marc Molinaro (R)

New York’s 22nd (Syracuse) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Brandon Williams (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: Francis Conole (D)

Oregon’s 5th (Bend) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)

Pennsylvania’s 17th (NW Allegheny) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Chris Deluzio (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Jeremy Shaffer (R)

Rhode Island’s 2nd (Warwick) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Seth Magaziner (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Allan Fung (R)

Colorado’s 6th (Thornton) - Leans R

Republican Party Nominee: Barbara Kirkmeyer (R)

Democratic Party Nominee: Yadira Caraveo (D)

California’s 13th (Merced) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Adam Gray (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: John Duarte (R)

Connecticut’s 5th (Waterbury) - Leans R

Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D)

Challenger: George Logan (R)

Illinois’s 17th (Rockford) - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Eric Sorensen (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Esther Joy King (R)

Maryland’s 6th (Frederick) - Leans D

Incumbent: David Trone (D)

Challenger: Neil Parrott (R)

Michigan’s 10th (Macomb) - Leans R

Incumbent Party Nominee: Carl Marlinga (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: John James (R)

Nevada’s 1st (Henderson) - Leans R

Incumbent: Dina Titus (D)

Challenger: Mark Robertson (R)

Nevada’s 3rd (Summerlin) - Leans R

Incumbent: Susie Lee (D)

Challenger: April Becker (R)

Partisan Irony does not use tilt status in the 2022 House Outlook to prioritize accuracy in our data. Our mentioned flips do not factor in redistricted maps and added/lost seats in state delegations.

Here’s why the GOP will win:

It’s the Economy, Stupid

POINT ONE

The most important issue right now for the majority of Americans is inflation. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll, 83% of Americans say that the current economic conditions will factor heavily into their decision this November. At this moment, President Joe Biden has not shown enough accomplishments to curb inflation fears, many Americans blame Biden on the start of inflation, and Americans are increasingly worried that a recession will occur.

There are arguments that can be made which proves that Biden has minimal control over inflation. Nevertheless, a lot of politics involve imagery. Americans are not seeing any positive change in their grocery stores, and since Biden is the face of America, he becomes the face of inaction towards inflation. As he is part of the Democratic party, it is likely that many independents will punish him by overturning his narrow majority in the House.

Midterms Go Against Incumbents

POINT TWO

In almost every single midterm elections in the past fifty years, the incumbent President’s party has always lost seats. Most Americans set their expectations too high for a President or he screws up. As a result, much of the President’s base of support loses a reason to go out and vote. The same is likely to happen in this election. and remember, the Republicans only need to flip four districts to gain a majority.

There are only two examples of midterms going well for the incumbent party: 1998 and 2002. Neither example works well in 2022, though. In 1998, Bill Clinton rode over American disapproval of the GOP’s impeachment inquiries against him. In 2001, the nation rallied around George W. Bush after their shock towards the events of 9/11. As of now, there have been no comparable situations to 9/11 nor a rise in President' Biden’s popularity.

2018 Democratic wave during Trump’s presidency

2018 Republican wave during Obama’s presidency