Democrats are somewhat likely to keep the US Senate

The Prediction

Image of our forecast, made two weeks before our November 7th prediction of the Senate elections

Nevada flips R

Pennsylvania flips D

Democrats maintain their 50 seat majority in the Senate. Nevada currently holds the narrowest Senate race out of the 35 seats up for election.

Changes Between 2020 and 2022

Key Races to Watch

Nevada - Tilts R

Incumbent: Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

Challenger: Adam Laxalt (R)

Pennsylvania - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Mehmet Oz (R)

Challenger Party Nominee: John Fetterman (D)

Here’s how the GOP will snatch it:

Big Donor Spending

POINT ONE

Both parties have spent a record amount of money for several races in the midterms. As a result, politics has never been so close to the homes of people. However, Republicans have historically been able to get more bang for their buck. With the help of Peter Thiel and Leonard Leo, Mitch McConnell has been able to fund crucial amounts of money in races such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. The Republican candidate in Ohio, JD Vance, fared poorly before the $28 million injection from McConnell’s super PAC. After the infusion, Vance is set to easily win the state.

The Democrats are able to fundraise more money off of smaller donors around the country. At the same time, Republicans in past elections have been able to use their money in a way that gets their core voters interested and moderate voters fearful of the Democrats. Although shady, this strategy is seeming to pay off.

A Good Senate Map

POINT TWO

This year’s Senate map was supposed to be a blessing for the Democrats. Unlike in the 2024 Senate map (which Democrats should be prepared for disaster) or the 2020 map, the Democrats don’t have to do a lot of defending. However, Democrats had to protect four crucial seats—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire—and target Pennsylvania. Two of those seats, Georgia and Nevada, are in states that Biden won by narrow margins. Furthermore, Pennsylvania and Nevada went to Biden by less than three points.

Although this map is the best that Democrats could ask for, the moment simply does not fit any potential for gains. The fact that Democrats are in the defensive in so many different territories makes attacking them easier for the Republicans. Democrats have to target their message to scrap as many voters as possible, but the GOP can simply talk about the economy as a wide appeal to Sun Belt and Rust Belt voters.